Monday, October 03, 2005

They came here to work hard

*INS detainer list for Oregon DOC*

This is the most disturbing, but not suprising, thing that I have seen in a long time. If I were to ask you how many people in the DOC (department of corrections) aka prison inmates, have an INS/ICE (immigration) hold, how many would you say?

Wait, before you answer, the total DOC population is 12,918. (09/01/05)

Ok, the number of inmates with an INS detainer: 765! (09/08/05)

That's 6% of the prison population. Keep in mind that other inmates might be illegal aliens but INS has not bothered to go after them.

Oregon's total population is 3,421,399. This means that the percentage of citizens who are in DOC custody is .00377564% (truncated)

If illegal aliens committed crimes at the same rate as the rest of Oregon's population that would mean that we have 202,615 illegal aliens in our state.

For comparison purposes: that's about the population of Tigard (41,223) Eugene (137,893) and Oregon City (23,499) put together.

Clearly illegal aliens commit crimes (above and beyond the crime of violating our immigration laws) at a higher rate than the general population.

And let's not kid ourselves about where these criminals come from. Garcia, Gonzales, Hernadez, Lopez, Ramirez, etc are the most common last names on the list.

Why do we accept the rapes, sodomies, sex abuses, drug manufacturing, drug selling, assaults and murders committed by these people? Do we really think that having an illegal labor pool is so important that we will sacrifice thousands of women and young girls to sexual abuse? Do you think that the families of the murder victims would be willing to pay more for strawberries in return for having their wife/husband/son/daughter back alive?

When I going through this list (I'm having trouble doing my own FTP site, will email to Lars and hopefully he will put it on his site for viewing/download) it's important to slow down. It's 22 pages long but instead of scrolling through it, take a minute to read it line by line. Imagine the victims of these crimes.

Think about the awful terror that children must have felt when they were victimized by these criminal aliens. Think about the families at the funerals. Think about the neglected children. Think about the scourge of meth that these people have helped to put on our community.

And to people like Ron Wyden, people who say that strawberries are worth this, you are less than human.


Anonymous said...

you might want to double check your math... too many zeros!

Gunslinger said...

I once heard, but never bothered to look into it, because it didn't surprise me, that hispanic males commit molestation of underage victims at a higher rate than any other ethnic group.

Like I said, I never bothered to look into it, but just from watching the news, and reading the paper, it sure seems to be true.

Daniel said...

I sent the list to Lars and OFIR late last night. Haven't heard back on an available link. (It was late because I spent about 2 hours trying to set up an FTP site to put it up myself)

When you see it you will be blow away at the number of sex crimes.

Anonymous: I checked my math... seems to work out. Please be more specific.

Will said...

Daniel - please don't confuse my criticisms of your analysis with an endorsement of the heinous crimes you mention. I am simply taking issue with the methods you use to reach your conclusion that Latinos are disproportionate criminal offenders.

The question is not "What percentage of the Oregon population is incarcerated?" but rather "Are Latinos (your proxy for 'illegal') disproportionately represented in the prison population relative to their proportions in the overall population?"

First, it's imprecise to examine the total population. As the DOC data sheet shows, virtually none of the inmates are under the age of 18 and less than 4% are over the age of 60. My guess is that these older ones are dominated by those serving life sentences, and therefore not likely recent offenders.

So, if you eliminate those under 17 and those over 60 from the total population of Oregon (using 2000 Census data) so that a more meaningful comparison to the DOC population can be made, you end up with a total of 2,037,896 Oregonians between the ages of 18 and 60. Within this population of "prime offending age" the racial/ethnic breakdown is as follows:

Asian - 3.4%
Non-Latino Black - 1.6%
Non-Latino White - 83.6%
Hispanic/Latino - 7.8%
Other (mostly Native American) - 3.6%

Now compare this breakout to that of the prison population using the DOC data sheet you provided:

Asian - 1.2%
Black - 9.6%
White - 77.4%
Hispanic - 9.7%
American Indian - 2.2%

Therefore, just controlling for age, the proportion of Latino DOC inmates is only about 2% higher than in the population as a whole. Keep in mind also that the Census data I used are now 5 years old. Even without illegal immigration, the Latino population in Oregon is growing much faster than that of the population as a whole, so I feel pretty safe assuming that the proportion of Hispanics in the DOC population is at parity with that of the population as a whole.

Again, my post here is not to endorse the crimes for which these people are locked up. It's simply to show that your numbers don't back up your assertions about disproportionate offending, not even close. My guess is that Lars will take your numbers and run with them. Despite being good for his ratings, this is intellectually dishonest and civically irresponsible. Nothiing good can come of a distortion of facts.

Anonymous said...

To prove the point, one need only ride along with any Police officer in Washington, Multnomah and Marion Counties and see for yourself who is doing the crime.

The violence, mayhem and total disregard for law and order will amaze you.

It will help if you are bilingual.

Will said...

Anonymous: To prove what point? That Spanish-speaking people commit crimes? No question. According to the DOC data sheet Daniel provided, it looks like every commits crime.

That Latinos (i.e. illegal aliens) commit crimes in numbers substantially disproportionate to their percentage in the total population (which is what I interpret you to mean when you say "who is doing the crime")? If this were true, then you would expect the numbers to back it up. They don't.

Anonymous said...

Will, you admit your data to be 5 years old. In the last 5 years the number of criminals entering this country has sky rocketed.

Having worked with a crew of these "people", everyone of them commited crimes. And they found it funny that all they had to do to clear their names was to go to the DMV and get a new ID with a new name.
All of them carried at least 2 ID's at all times.

Check the current numbers Will. Be honest with America's reality. If you have any questions, go work with some of these criminals and get to know them first hand, then tell me you aren't disgusted with how they mock our country.

They think of us as below them. They ignor our laws. Will, they are less than human. Our society reflects this by the amount of drugs they bring into this country and the disrespect they show the women that have the misfortune of meeting them.
It is time to wake up and rid this country of this disease from the south. It is time to declare war.

Gullyborg said...


I think you need to either lose the % symbol, or else lose the two leading zeroes. Having them both puts you off by a factor of 100.

Will said...

Anonymous -- I'd prefer not to give your post the dignity of a response, but since you took issue with my data...

Population figures, such as the one Daniel produced for the population of Oregon, come from the decennial Census (i.e. collected only every 10 years). It's highly unlikely that the undocumented population has "skyrocketed" enough in five years to make 2000 census data obsolete. But, in the nearly impossible case that that were true, it would only lend support for my claim and diminish Daniel's for it would mean that the percentage of Latinos in the Oregon prison population is much lower than in the population as a whole.

Again, my point was to challenge Daniel's opinion that Latinos (read "illegals") disproportionately commit crime relative to their numbers in the overall populaation. The numbers he provided don't support that opinion.

Anonymous said...

Hello, these are ONLY the ones with a ICE hold. Many illegals have never been identified Will.
Yes Will, add up 8,000 Mexicans sneaking in per day times the last 5 years. Remember most criminals have committed several rapes, drug dealings, D.U.I.'s etc. and then they are finally caught.
Will, Why is it such a leap to conclude that people who sneak into America and then LIE to get fake id and then LIE to get a job or stay here are all good hard working people? Contempt breeds contempt.

Daniel said...

Will, I would like to clarify that the population that I am saying committs a disproportionate share of the crimes is not the Hispanic or Latino population but the illegal alien population.

I am comparing American citizens with criminal aliens.

My point is that these people who break our immigration laws are more likely to commit further crimes than the general population.

Statistics about Hispanic population compared to white/black/purple are irrelevant. My comparison is citizens to criminal aliens, regardless of race.

Will said...

Well, Daniel, you haven't demonstrated that fact at all. You have only determined based on those with an INS detainer (are you sure that these are all illegal and not rather persons who might have violated a temporary legal status by committing a crime? I'm not familiar with the conditions under which work visas are issued), that 6% of the DOC population is "illegal", and then estimated the size of the illegal population based on that figure. You have not shown that they offend disproportionately.

Why is this important? Just because Anonymous (funny how only the people who disagree with the crew here get told to "man up" and identify) knows undocumented Mexicans who he/she defines as "less than human", and no matter how much froth Lars and Savage put on the microphone declaring illegal Mexicans the scourge of society, citing this or that news story, but no reliable evidence, doesn't make it so (this is why I think talk radio is a sham). For each piece of anecdotal evidence that they provide, I can recall a news story or personal experience the puts the undocumented in a completely different light: as hard-working persons, helping to drive our economy within an immigration system that doesn't work. These two stories for example:

This back and forth could go on and on, ad nauseum, without acheiving anything. There's no question that unauthorized migration from Mexico is on the rise: But at some point, policy makers are going to have to address it, and in doing so, will need to sit down and look at the sober FACTS to answer questions such as: How reliant on low-skilled foreign labor is our economy? Are unauthorized Mexicans really a public health risk (e.g. disproportionate criminal offenders), and is that likely to change if they were legalized? Do we need to simply raise the quotas for migration from Mexico so that those wanting to come here legally to work can do so?

This is why I feel it's important to take an honest look at this issue. It's not an issue that should be confronted with a pre-conceived political position and then shape the number to support your argument. That is a recipe for bad policy.

Will said...

Daniel -- you obviously seem unwilling or unable to engage in a serious policy discussion that revolves around an examination of the facts and the data available. Rather, you seem more inclined to invoke the same old unsubstantiated and tired talk-radio rhetoric. So have fun preaching the choir.

I'd like, however, to point out one very relevant example of the unintended consequences that can result from policies designed based on rhetoric and politics rather than reasoned discussion: the Iraq War. If, and this seems a very likely possibility, the situation in Iraq digresses into a Civil War, the Sunnis (most of them Baathists) will undoubtedly find themselves on the short end of it, as they are numerically a very small minority, not only in Iraq, but throughout the Muslim world. They will seek asylum as refugees (or face decimation) and the US will have to honor its moral responsibility to take them in. So, if a Federal resettlement program decides to place X number of Sunni families in Sherwood, Oregon, you'll welcome them right? Because, after all, you support the war.

Consider also that by honoring our moral responsibility as a nation and taking in Sunni refugees, our government will send a symbolic message rejecting the new Shiite government of Iraq, the one we installed, creating a tension between us and them and further pushing Iraqi Shiites into a coalition with their Iranian bretheren. 10 years down the road we'll be facing a major Shiite theocracy, vehemently anti-U.S., embodied in the allied states of Iran and Iraq. That will fun.