Thursday, December 07, 2006

I'm going to miss my rapist excusing nemesis

Mexico's Oregon envoy
[Fernando Sanchez Ugarte] takes Cabinet post Mexico's consul general in Oregon has accepted a Cabinet position under new President Felipe Calderon.

Sanchez has served as consul general in Portland since October 2004.

Fernando has provided many hours of amusement for me. The look on his face every time he sees me at a protest gives me a warm, squishy feeling inside. It's a look of "not him again..."

But even though he was on the other side of the illegal alien issue I think that he helped us out. Who can forget the time when he suggested that rape was just a "cultural clash." (profile in pictures at that link)

We all should wish him well at his new post. Email him at and make sure you tell him I said "hi" and that I look forward to causing his replacement many headaches.


Ric said...

Which Mexican government?

It is probably a reward for getting all the ex-pats to vote.

Anonymous said...

So is that how it works?! You get rewarded with a job in a corupt government for aiding and abetting criminals? Fuck man I've been going about life all wrong if that's the case. I wonder what it pays? Anyways good ridance to Fertard. lasernorm

Anonymous said...

Yaay Daniel!! Todays post got mentioned on Lars today around 11:15 AM.

Bobkatt said...

Lest we not forget. 65 years ago.

Anonymous said...

The Conventions of a number of the States having, at the time of adopting the Constitution, expressed a desire, in order to prevent misconstruction or abuse of its powers, that further declaratory and restrictive clauses should be added, and as extending the ground of public confidence in the Government will best insure the beneficent ends of its institution;

Resolved, by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America, in Congress assembled, two-thirds of both Houses concurring, that the following articles be proposed to the Legislatures of the several States, as amendments to the Constitution of the United States; all or any of which articles, when ratified by three-fourths of the said Legislatures, to be valid to all intents and purposes as part of the said Constitution, namely:

Amendment I
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Amendment II
A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.

Amendment III
No soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.

Amendment IV
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

Amendment V
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Amendment VI
In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed, which district shall have been previously ascertained by law, and to be informed of the nature and cause of the accusation; to be confronted with the witnesses against him; to have compulsory process for obtaining witnesses in his favor, and to have the assistance of counsel for his defense.

Amendment VII
In suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise reexamined in any court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.

Amendment VIII
Excessive bail shall not be required, nor excessive fines imposed, nor cruel and unusual punishments inflicted.

Amendment IX
The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.

Amendment X
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

Anonymous said...

Thank you and good morning!

It's great to be back in Badger Country!

Today is Armed Forces Day. A day when we honor those men and women who have worn our country's uniform. Who, through principle and sacrifice, have made a profound difference for freedom in the world.

But today I want to talk about America's heroes who did not wear uniforms and did not serve overseas. To talk about some of them, let me set the stage…

On December 7th, 1941, the enemies of Freedom moved to disarm America's Pacific Fleet in a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. An attack that crippled our Navy, killed more than 2,400 American servicemen and led many to fear that the Japanese Empire would own the Pacific.

But then, a fairly new weapon sailed into the breach and soon proved its power: The American submarine, affectionately called-The Fleet Boat. By the end of World War II, U.S. submarines had sunk eight aircraft carriers, over 200 warships, and more Japanese merchant ships than all other weapons combined. The young men aboard those submarines your fathers, grandfathers, and brothers took the war to the enemy's shores, buying time, and holding the enemy at bay while America prepared for war.

Now all this sounds far away and long ago, but it really isn't. In fact, it actually has a lot to do with this place this speaker and all of you and why we are here.

About 80 miles north of here there's a place on the lake called Manitowoc some of you probably know the place I'm talking about. That was where over two dozen of those fleet submarines were built by men and women whose sons and daughters and grandsons and granddaughters are among us here this morning. They left their homes, their fields and their orchards to work in the shipyard as men and women united in defense of their nation and dedicated as one to the cause of freedom.

They were part of "America's 2nd Army." And without them, victory would have been impossible. They built the ships, and tanks and planes and grew the food and made the uniforms. They gave America's "Greatest Generation" its greatest technology. And with it, the courage and the means to save the rest of world from an inferno of tyranny, hatred and murder.

That's the kind of monumental miracle that happens, here in America, when a lot of ordinary people muster for the sake of one extraordinary idea: The idea of human freedom. I know! I've been there!

In 1970 and '71, I was betting my life on one of those boats built up in Manitowoc during the War. I was barely 20 years old, assigned to the U.S.S. Hardhead built in 1943 by the good men and women of the Great State of Wisconsin. At the time, the top enlisted man on that boat the COB, or chief of the boat was an NRA Life Member and accomplished pistol shooter named Jack Gallimore.

During cold war patrols in the Mediterranean and up in Ivan's backyard, we talked about hunting and shooting, politics, and gun control. The Gun Control Act of 1968 had just turned the law upside-down for gun owners in this country, and things did not look good for the future. I can still remember Chief Gallimore holding court in the Forward Torpedo Room, telling me and my shipmates that the National Rifle Association is our only hope to save our guns. And that if it wasn't for the NRA, our guns would be long-gone already.

Then it struck me: the United States was fighting for freedom on the other side of the world in Viet Nam and holding the Soviet threat at bay in the Mediterranean and the North Atlantic. And yet, our own, most fundamental freedoms were eroding away here at home.

Chief Gallimore recruited me for the NRA in 1970 convincing me to join many of my shipmates and hundreds of thousands of other servicemen and women in an organization dedicated to serving America and the cause of Freedom.

Ladies and gentlemen, Chief Gallimore not only set the course that got me safely back home he also set a course in my life to fight for freedom, right alongside you, in Freedom's 2nd Army. I never got a chance to thank Chief Gallimore. I never told him how joining and later helping to lead the NRA has been one of the greatest and most rewarding experiences of my life. Chief Gallimore probably never knew the impact of what he taught me about the meaning of freedom... what it costs and what it's worth once it's lost.

Well, now he knows. Because I tracked him down and arranged for him to be with us today.Chief of the Boat Master Chief Jack Gallimore please stand and be recognized by the rest of Freedom's Second Army!

Ladies and gentlemen, I invited Chief Gallimore here today not just to thank him, but also to serve as an example for you to show you what we must do if we hope to preserve our freedom.

Chief Gallimore was a catalyst who helped me to see the importance of our Second Amendment freedom. He used his belief in the NRA and the cause of freedom to turn his personal "army of one" into an army of two and who knows how many more just like me. In the same way, you, too, can serve as the mentors, the role models, and proud examples who lead others to inspired lives in defense of this freedom. But only if you take the time, and trouble, to show them how and show them often.

So be like Chief Gallimore, and pass the word to those who need to hear it. Follow the Chief's example, and be a recruiter for Freedom's Second Army. Just as American troops serve as liberators abroad you serve as a liberator and life-saver here in America with your support of the 2nd Amendment.

As new citizens in emerging countries overseas assess and embrace constitutional freedoms for the first time here in America, citizens like you and me are reclaiming our constitutional rights and freedoms! And, that's worth fighting for!

Just as millions of people freed by American troops are learning for the first time what it means to go to school, or to vote, or for that matter to live without fear of extermination here in America, millions are enjoying more firearm freedom every year less violent crime than in previous decades fewer firearm accidents than ever before and a better quality of life all of the time!

You are Freedom's Second Army and you make all of that possible!

So, in honor of Armed Forces Day, stand up like Chief Gallimore. Do your part to ensure that America's brave servicemen and women come home to an America that is every bit as free as the one they left. Free people sometimes forget what freedom means so remind them before history teaches them the hard way.

Be a captain to your crew. Turn your own Army of One into an army of multitudes. Add a member every day to Freedom's 2nd Army, and together, our Association will preserve this precious freedom as the birthright of future generations generations who will be called upon in their own turn to defend it and save it, or God forbid let it sink.

By standing together, strong and united, we have won many battles, but there are many battles yet to be won. The enemies of freedom have lost a lot of ground to Freedom's 2nd Army but the war is far from over. Even as I speak, those enemies are planning their next counter-attack and we must be prepared- we must be strong and we must be united.

This Armed Forces Day, as we pay tribute to the young men and women who defend our freedom around the world I ask each-one- of-you, as part of Freedom's 2nd Army, to redouble YOUR efforts in defense of our culture, our heritage, and our constitutional freedoms here at home. Do it for them they deserve it because they've earned it!

Thank you, God bless you all, and may God bless America.

Anonymous said...

By Eliot A. Cohen
Posted: Thursday, December 7, 2006

Wall Street Journal
Publication Date: December 7, 2006

The theory of the thing is very peculiar indeed. You are in the middle of a war--a hard war, a war that is going badly. If the government has bogged down, if the people inside have gone stale, you would say that the sound thing, the Churchillian or Lincolnian or Rooseveltian thing, would be, first, to fire a bunch of officials (generals as well as top civilians), promote or bring in fresh talent, and put together a small group of people to take a new and unillusioned look. Those people would report back in secrecy to the president and his most senior advisers and aides.

They would consist of experienced soldiers and civilians in whom the president (who, after all, has to make the strategic decisions, and is the accountable executive) has trust. There would not be many of them, a half dozen or so, and they would have to be hardy enough to visit the war zone for several weeks, talking not just to politicians and generals but to captains and sergeants. They would go see things for themselves. They would visit a forward operating base near Tikrit; they would spend some time with Iraqi soldiers in Taji; they would take their chances in a convoy to al Asad, or even a patrol in Tal Afar.

They--not their staff of a few soldiers and secretaries--would do the probing, digging, thinking, discussing and, above all, the writing. The chairman of the group would insist that they air their disagreements candidly and thoroughly in front of the president, engaging in a debate that might last a day, perhaps longer. The rest of us would not find out about the panel until months, or even years, after it reported back; maybe not until the war was over.

The administration's congressional critics (including those of its own party) came up with a different solution: the Iraq Study Group (ISG), which has now produced a document that consists of 50 pages of recommendations, preceded by a 40-page thumbnail sketch of the current situation in Iraq and 50 pages of maps, lists of people, and full-length biographies of the commissioners. This is a group composed, for the most part, of retired eminent public officials, most with limited or no expertise in the waging or study of war. It consists of individuals carefully selected with an eye to diverse partisan and other irrelevant personal characteristics. These worthies, with not one chairman but two (for balance, of course), turned to several score experts known to disagree vehemently with one another about the best course of action to be pursued in Iraq.

Some of the commission members and their advisers cordially detest the president and his administration and opposed him and his war from the outset; others were equally passionate in their defense of both the man and the conflict. And yet this diverse group had an overwhelming mandate, from the beginning, to produce a consensus document. The commission members spent four days in Iraq, and with the exception of a one-day foray by former Marine Chuck Robb, they stayed in the Green Zone, that bubble of palaces and residences that has little to do with the real Iraq of Basra, Kirkuk, Ramadi, Baquba and Mosul. At the end, they had breakfast with the president and a few hours later posted their conclusions on the Internet for all the world to ponder. There is something of farce in all this, an invocation of wisdom from a cohesive Washington elite that does not exist, a desperate wish to believe in the gravitas and the statecraft of grave men (and women) who can sort out the mess in which the country finds itself.

A fatuous process yields, necessarily, fatuous results. "Iraq's neighbors are not doing enough to help Iraq achieve stability"--a statement only somewhat ameliorated by the admission that some are even "undercutting stability," which sounds as though Syria and Iran were being downright rude, rather than providing indispensable assistance to those who have filled the burn wards of Walter Reed, the morgue in Baghdad, and the cemetery at Arlington. The selected remedy is, first and foremost, rather like the ISG's credo for its own functioning, consensus. "The United States should immediately launch a new diplomatic offensive to build an international consensus for stability in Iraq and the region," as if our chief failure with Bashar Assad or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lies with the hitherto unnoticed laziness or rhetorical ineptitude of our diplomats, or as though Europe, Saudi Arabia and Israel have not yet figured out that stability in Iraq is a good thing. "Syria should control its border" and "Iran should respect Iraq's sovereignty."

No kidding--but who is going to make them? That perennial solution, "resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict," makes its appearance, including direct negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, but only with "those who accept Israel's right to exist." The report conveniently forgets that the elected leaders of Palestine do not, in fact, accept Israel's right to exist. And it also neglects the grim reality that one of the most terrible things about Gaza, and possibly the West Bank as well, is that no one, not even Hamas, is really in charge.

Part of Iran's price for easing up on us in Iraq is pretty clearly taking the heat off its nuclear program; the ISG recommends that that issue "should continue to be dealt with by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany." Well, what deal should the U.S. be willing to cut on Iranian nuclear weapons? Do we think the Iranians would deliver? And what are the long-term consequences?

War, and warlike statecraft, is a hard business, and though this is supposed to be a report dominated by "realists," there is nothing realistic in failing to spell out the bloody deeds, grim probabilities and dismal consequences associated with even the best course of action. Indeed, some parts of the report read as sheer fantasy--Recommendation 15, for example, which provides that part of the American deal with Syria should include the latter's full cooperation in investigating the Hariri assassination, verifiable cessation of Syrian aid to Hezbollah, and its support for persuading Hamas to recognize Israel.

The prescriptions for internal processes in Iraq are only somewhat better. The ISG argues that American forces should shift to developing Iraqi security forces and backing them up, which is more or less the course we are on now. It talks of milestones for Iraqi performance, as if Iraqi benchmarking were more a problem than Iraqi will, and Iraqi will more the problem than Iraqi capability. It suggests announcing our own planned redeployments without considering the most obvious consequence, which is that Iraqis of many political hues will decide that the Americans are leaving, and the time has come to cut deals with Jaish al Mahdi, or the Badr organization, or al Qaeda in Iraq, or any of the other cutthroat outfits infesting that bleeding country.

Quite apart from the psychological impact of our actions, there is the sober fact that the Iraqi army is small, 138,000-strong (and that number probably overstated), and that building effective security forces takes time. The 188,000-man police forces are corrupt, riddled with militia influence, and in need of a thorough overhaul. We cannot build the Iraqi security forces without a substantial combat presence. Nor is the problem merely one of training, as Iraqi corporals driving around in pickup trucks without functional radios might have sourly pointed out, had they had the chance to talk to a Study Group member.

At least the ISG has given considerable thought to preparing us for future conflict. Consider Recommendations 47 and 48. Congress, they declare, should allocate money to repair the clapped-out equipment the Army and Marines will bring back from Iraq. This is no doubt better than, say, heaving Bradley infantry fighting vehicles overboard on the way back to American ports in order to provide a home for new coral reefs. "As [American] redeployment proceeds, military leaders should emphasize training and education of forces that have returned to the United States in order to restore the force to full combat capability." Pentagon planners would do well to pursue this plan rather than give the troops six months of leave and then having them paint the sorely neglected rocks outside the sergeant major's office.

The great war leaders, in their private deliberations, shied away from vagueness. Haziness about ends and means, about what to do and how to do it, is a mark of strategic ineptitude; in war it gets people killed. But a Churchill could only call the flattening of German cities "terror bombing" in private.

Thus, unsurprisingly, in a public document of this kind, euphemism and imprecision abound. The U.S. needs to give "disincentives" to Syria and Iran: But the real question has always been whether we are willing to use a variety of overt and covert means--from bombing insurgent safe houses to sabotaging refineries, from mining harbors to supporting their own insurgents--to do so. And, in fact, the report mentions no means for squeezing either country.

True, as James Baker irritably noted at the press conference releasing the report, the U.S. talked to the Soviet Union during the Cold War. But as the U.S. did so it also bankrupted the U.S.S.R. in an arms race, undermined its client governments in Eastern Europe by supporting Polish labor unions, and killed its soldiers by providing surface-to-air missiles to Afghan guerrillas. Real pain, and not merely tough talk sweetened by a bucket of goodies, paves the way for successful negotiations with brutal opponents.

What we need in Iraq is not a New Diplomatic Offensive (capitals in the original) so much as energy and competence in fighting the fight. From the outset of the Iraq war much of our difficulty has stemmed not so much from failures to find the right strategy, as from an astounding and depressing inability to implement the strategic and operational choices we have nominally made.

This inability has come from things as personal as picking the wrong people for key positions, in the apparent belief that generals are interchangeable cogs in a counterinsurgency machine. It has come from an unwillingness or inability to grab the bureaucracy by the throat and make it act--which is why, three years after the insurgency began, we still send soldiers out to risk roadside bomb attacks in overweight Humvees when there are half a dozen commercially available armored vehicles designed to minimize the effects of such blasts. It is why--although the government has declared long before the ISG issued its report that training the Iraqis is Job One--we still embed fewer than a dozen American advisers in an Iraqi battalion when the right number is three to five times that many.

We have not come up to the brink of failure because we did not know how important it is to employ young Iraqi men or to keep detained insurgents out of circulation or to prevent militia penetration of the security forces by vetting the commanders of those forces. We have known these things--but we have not done these things.

The creation of the Iraq Study Group reflects the vain hope that well-meaning, senior, former public officials can find ideas that have not already occurred to people inside government; that those new ideas can redeem incompetent execution and insufficient resources; that salvation can come from a Washington establishment whose wisdom was exaggerated in its heyday, and which has in any event succumbed to a kind of political-intellectual entropy since the 1960s; that a public commission can do the work of oversight that Congress has shirked for five years in the misguided belief that it would thus support an administration struggling to do its best in a difficult situation. This is no way to run a war, and most definitely, no way to win it.

Eliot A. Cohen is a member of AEI's Council of Academic Advisers and the Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies.

Anonymous said...

Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates:
Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms
Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, Javier Miranda1
June 13, 2006
We study the variability of business growth rates in the U.S. private sector from 1976 onwards. To carry out our study, we exploit the recently developed Longitudinal Business Database (LBD), which contains annual observations on employment and payroll for all U.S. businesses. Our central finding is a large secular decline in the cross sectional dispersion of firm growth rates and in the average magnitude of firm level volatility. Measured the same way as in other recent research, the employment-weighted mean volatility of firm growth rates has declined by more than 40% since 1982. This result stands in sharp contrast to previous findings of rising volatility for publicly traded firms in COMPUSTAT data. We confirm the rise in volatility among publicly traded firms using the LBD, but we show that its impact is overwhelmed by declining volatility among privately held firms. This pattern holds in every major industry group. Employment shifts toward older businesses account for 27 percent or more of the volatility decline among privately held firms. Simple cohort effects that capture higher volatility among more recently listed firms account for most of the volatility rise among publicly traded firms.
1 University of Chicago, NBER and American Enterprise Institute; University of Maryland and NBER; U.S. Census Bureau; and U.S. Census Bureau. For many helpful comments on earlier drafts, we thank Chris Foote, Eva Nagypal, the editors, participants in the 2006 NBER Macroeconomics Annual Conference, the CEPR Conference on Firm Dynamics, the Ewing Marion Kauffman – Max Planck Conference on Entrepreneurship and Growth and seminars at the Brookings Institution, the Census Bureau, New York University and the University of Chicago. We thank Marios Michaelides for excellent research assistance and the Kauffman Foundation for financial support. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Census Bureau. The paper has been screened to ensure that it does not disclose any confidential information.
I. Introduction
We study the variability of business growth rates in the U.S. economy from 1976 onwards. To carry out our study, we exploit the recently developed Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) (Jarmin and Miranda, 2002a), which contains annual observations on employment and payroll for all establishments and firms in the private sector. Compared to other longitudinal business databases for the United States, the LBD is unparalleled in its comprehensive coverage over an extended period of time. The underlying sources for the LBD are periodic business surveys conducted by the Census Bureau and federal government administrative records.2
Macroeconomists increasingly recognize the importance of interactions between aggregate economic performance and the volatility and heterogeneity of business level outcomes. Idiosyncratic shocks are central to modern theories of unemployment. Frictions in product, factor and credit markets that impede business responses to idiosyncratic shocks can raise unemployment, lower productivity and depress investment. Financial innovations that facilitate better risk sharing can simultaneously encourage risk taking and investment, amplify business level volatility, and promote growth. Several recent studies hypothesize a close connection between declining aggregate volatility and trends in business level volatility. These examples of interactions between business level and aggregate outcomes help motivate our empirical study. Our chief objective is to develop a robust set of facts about the magnitude and evolution of business level volatility and the cross sectional dispersion of business growth rates in the U.S. economy.
Previous empirical work in this area yields an unclear picture. Several recent studies find a secular rise in average volatility among publicly traded firms. Examples include Campbell et al. (2001), Chaney, Gabaix and Philippon (2002), Comin and Mulani (2006), and Comin and Philippon (2005). In Figure 1, we replicate a key finding from the latter two studies. The figure shows that the average magnitudes of firm level volatility in the growth rates of sales and employment have roughly doubled since the early 1960s.3 In a
2 The LBD is confidential under Titles 13 & 26 U.S.C. Research access to the LBD can be granted to non-Census staff for approved projects. See for more information. COMPUSTAT, which provides information on publicly traded firms only, has been the primary data source for recent work on firm level volatility.
3 Firm level volatility is calculated from COMPUSTAT data as a moving ten-year window on the standard deviation of firm level growth rates. See equation (5) in section III below. 1
different line of research, Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2006) and Faberman (2006) produce evidence of a downward trend in the excess job reallocation rate, a measure of cross sectional dispersion in establishment growth rates.4 As seen in the top panel of Figure 2, the quarterly excess job reallocation rate in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell from about 12 percent in the early 1960s to 8 percent by 2005. The shorter time series in the lower panel shows a decline in excess job reallocation for the U.S. private sector from 16 percent or more in the early 1990s to less than 14 percent by 2005.5 The data underlying Figure 2 are not restricted to publicly traded firms.
There is an unresolved tension between the evidence of rising firm level volatility and declining cross sectional dispersion in establishment growth rates. To appreciate the tension, consider a simple example in which all employers follow identical and independent autoregressive processes. Then an increase in the innovation variance of idiosyncratic shocks implies an increase in employer volatility and in the cross sectional dispersion of growth rates. Of course, it is possible to break the tight link between employer volatility and cross sectional dispersion in more complicated specifications. It is also possible that firm and establishment growth processes have evolved along sharply different paths in recent decades. Yet another possibility is that the restriction to publicly traded businesses in previous studies paints a misleading picture of firm level volatility trends in the economy as a whole.6 A related possibility is that the economic selection process governing entry into the set of publicly traded firms has changed over time in ways that affect measured trends in volatility.
In what follows, we explore each of these issues. We find similar trends in cross sectional dispersion and firm level volatility, so the different measures cannot account for the contrast between Figures 1 and 2. Instead, the resolution turns mainly on the distinction between publicly traded and privately held businesses. For the private nonfarm sector as a whole, both firm level volatility and cross sectional dispersion
4 Excess job reallocation equals the sum of gross job creation and destruction less the absolute value of net employment growth. Dividing excess reallocation by the level of employment yields a rate. One can show that the excess reallocation rate is equivalent to the employment-weighted mean absolute deviation of establishment growth rates about zero. See Davis, Haltiwanger and Schuh (1996).
5 Job flow statistics for the whole private sector are from the BLS Business Employment Dynamics. They are unavailable prior to 1990.
6 Acemoglu (2005), Eberly (2005) and Davis, Faberman and Haltiwanger (2006) question whether sample selection colors the findings in previous studies of firm level volatility.
measures show large declines in recent decades. For publicly traded firms, we provide independent evidence that cross sectional dispersion and firm level volatility have risen during the period covered by the LBD. We also show, however, that this rise for publicly traded firms is overwhelmed by the dramatic decline among privately held firms, which account for more than two-thirds of private business employment. Very similar results obtain when we treat establishments, rather than firms, as the unit of observation.
Two basic patterns hold across major industry groups. First, the volatility and dispersion of business growth rates are considerably greater for privately held firms. As of 1978, the average standard deviation of firm-level employment growth rates is 3.7 times larger for privately held than for publicly traded firms. This volatility ratio ranges from 2.3 in Services to 6.3 in Transportation and Public Utilities. Second, volatility and dispersion decline sharply among privately held businesses in the period covered by the LBD, and they rise sharply among publicly traded firms. The overall private-public volatility ratio falls to 1.6 by 2001, and it drops sharply in every major industry group. We refer to this phenomenon as “volatility convergence.”
We also provide proximate explanations for these patterns. First, much of the decline in dispersion and volatility for the private sector as a whole, and for privately held firms in particular, reflects a decline in (employment-weighted) business entry and exit rates. Second, the age distribution of employment among privately held firms shifted towards older businesses in the period covered by the LBD. Because volatility declines steeply with age, the shift toward older businesses brought about a decline in overall volatility. We estimate that 27 percent or more of the volatility decline among privately held firms reflects the shift toward older businesses. Third, the evolution toward larger firms in certain industries, especially Retail Trade, accounts for about 10 percent of the volatility decline among nonfarm businesses during the period covered by the LBD.
Fourth, and perhaps most striking, changes over time in the number and character of newly listed firms played a major role in the volatility rise among publicly traded firms and in the volatility convergence phenomenon. There was a large influx of newly listed firms after 1979, and newly listed firms are much more volatile than seasoned listings. Moreover, firms newly listed in the 1980s and 1990s exhibit much greater volatility than earlier cohorts. Indeed, simple cohort dummies for the year of first listing in
COMPUSTAT account for 67 percent of the volatility rise among publicly traded firms from 1978 to 2001, and they account for 90 percent of the smaller rise over the 1951-2004 period spanned by COMPUSTAT. Other evidence discussed below also points to important changes over time in the selection of firms that become public.
The paper proceeds as follows. Section II reviews the role of idiosyncratic shocks, producer heterogeneity and risk-taking in selected theories of growth, fluctuations and unemployment. Section II also identifies several factors that influence business volatility and its connection to aggregate volatility. Section III describes our data and measurement procedures. Section IV presents our main empirical findings on volatility and cross sectional dispersion in business outcomes. Section V explores various factors that help to amplify and explain our main findings. Section VI offers concluding remarks.

Anonymous said...

Are we done with our history and government lessons for the day? What is up with the long post?

MAX Redline said...

Are we done with our history and government lessons for the day? What is up with the long post?

Oh, Anon 350's just a troll who hopes to drive folks away from Daniel's blog by eating up bandwidth and forcing folks to scroll past the irrelevant ravings.

It never works, but trolls never learn.

Anonymous said...

MAX Redline said...
Are we done with our history and government lessons for the day? What is up with the long post?

Oh, Anon 350's just a troll who hopes to drive folks away from Daniel's blog by eating up bandwidth and forcing folks to scroll past the irrelevant ravings.

It never works, but trolls never learn.

Anonymous said...

I'm Mary,
from Sri Lanka,
and I'm 14 y.o

Hi, Girl and Boy
I've studied English sinse this Summer .
It's very!
I would like like to meet peple and practisice My English with them.

Thanks all!!

Anonymous said...

What language do they speak in Sri Lanka? Can you teach us to say something?

Bobkat said...

Adios Fernando. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Oh by the way, don't forget to take the 20 to 30 million illegals with you. Please take President Bush with you also. He doesn't seem to think open borders are a problem. Well here's just one of the problems:
"Both the driver and passenger, Mexican nationals, were arrested. Agents found 2,011 pounds of weed in the two trucks, worth $1.6 million according to Border Patrol figures or $1 million using figures from the Arizona High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area.
Agents have seized 149,700 pounds of marijuana since Oct. 1 in the Tucson Sector, a 37 percent increase over the same time period in fiscal year 2006. The 616,534 pounds of pot seized last year marked the fifth consecutive year marijuana seizures had increased."

Scottiebill said...

When I went to high school in Cut Bank, Montana, we played the Browning Indians in football and basketball. And the Cut Bank teams still do play against the Browning Indians. Browning is the headquarters of the Blackfeet Tribe. I guess that this kid would probably take exception to their team name, too.

This "PC" b.s. has gotten way out of hand and has to be stopped. NOW!!

Scottiebill said...

Oops! I posted my remarks in the wrong blog spot. It was meant for the one just prior to this one. Sorry.

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Daniel, I have to say that some of the your posters need to get their own blog if he or she insists on writing a "novel" in your comments. It's free! Just sign up at

Bobkat (not Bobkatt) at 12:49PM, you forgot to mention to Fernando to take Gordon Smith with him too back to Mexico.

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