Wednesday, March 19, 2008

75% of Americans say a cat is a dog

75% of Americans Say U.S. In Recession, According to CNN Poll
Are we in a recession? The politicians may say no, but Americans say yes. 74% of us say so, according to a CNN poll, a percentage any politician would lust for in an election. The numbers are pretty evenly divided three ways as far as whether it is a major, moderate or mild recession. Even 54% of Republicans agree with this assessment, less than the nearly 90% of the Democrats who concur, but still a significant number of people.

This has been irritating me for several days now because everywhere I go it seems that ignorant people have to make conversation about the "recession that we are in" and when "it is going to be over." It doesn't matter where you go, walk past a homeless camp and some bum will be making predictions on the "end of the recession" like he's a floor trader.

For the record: a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. We have not had that yet. We do not meet the defenition for "being in a recession." We may find out at the end of this quarter that we are but until then please stop talking like Ben Bernake sent you a text on your blackberry five minutes ago, you played golf with Warren Buffet yesterday and you're going to lunch with Henry Paulson.

You are not a finacial genuis, you can't even define recession and anyone who listens to your market predictions and isn't laughing in their head is dumber than you are.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

thank you for the insight daniel, but I think all you've done is given us a glimpse of conservatives' estimation of the intelligence and manipulability of the general public: "As long as we don't 'call' it a recession, maybe people won't act like we're in one, and things will turn around."

I don't know if we're in a recession or not, but I do know that job growth is as slow as it has been in a long time, I can barely afford to fill up my gas tank, the US dollar is at an all-time low against the Euro, we have a record deficit, the credit market is a mess, the housing market is slack, the stock market is as volatile as I've ever seen it, and the Fed is tinkering with the economy in ways it hasn't since shortly after the great depression.

Do you think that workaday people give two shits about the precise definition of a recession? Even the poorly educated are smart enough to know that if we're debating whether we're in one, about to be in one, or can avoid one, things ain't good!

Anonymous said...

Obviously, Daniel Miglavs and Mrs. Daniel Miglavs are employed, and they have food on table. All is well, all is good. Smile, be happy, move on.

Anonymous said...

Now if only he could get the ignorant, especially those good-for-nothing homeless, to stop annoying him with their pedestrian ruminations about the economy.

Who knew Daniel spent any time hanging around homeless camps? Was he filming another expose?

Anonymous said...

LOL anon 820:

So true! As long as we dont 'call' it a civil war people wont act like Iraq is in one and things will "work out."

As for Miglavs, he needs to ask his servant/wife how much she's spending on groceries lately and how far she's stretching her Oregon state paycheck and see if she thinks the economy is doing great.

OregonGuy said...

(Laughs out loud.)

Daniel--

Anon has access to the intertubes. You'd a thunk he'd check some definitions and facts before hitting your comments section.

But, if this is the same guy who cruised through here the other day to toss names at you, well...I guess it's to be expected.

So, go ahead, Anon...work for "change". Even though it's clear you don't know from what place change will begin to take place. So I'll tell you.

That would be the here. Now. So, to best guage change it would be smart to know what's going on now. Other than that whining sound in your ear.

And one more thing...that whining sound?

That's you.

Anonymous said...

Oregonguy - On what facts was I in error? Are you going to try to convince me that the economy is going along swimmingly? If so, why don't you go about it then. What, precisely, is the here and now that gives you such a clear perspective on matters?

My main point was that things sure don't look good for our economy right now (and I don't think I'm alone here). Debating the precise definition of a recession in times like these is akin to worrying about the color of the drapes when the house has caught fire.

Other than to call me a whiner, did you actually have a point to your post?

As for change, I'll start by voting for a democrat for president (or anyone else who wants to change Bush's tax policy). I have no faith in trickle-down economics; neither the Reagan nor W version seems to have served the national economy very well. Rich people don't drive the economy: they speculate on it. Giving them more money with which to speculate will not stimulate the economy.

anon 2:53 said...

'For the record: a depression is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP."

No. Recession. Not depression. You got it right the first two times.

I really wanted to use a softer tone than I'm about to, but berating people for having legitimate concerns is unbecoming. So...

Do you remember back in high school when we were learning about the concept of "self-fulfilling prophecies?" No? You didn't pay attention in high school? If you did, you would see something legitimate about the concerns of the American people that we're heading to recession. I guarantee, if this is the same attitude that drives the American people the next two quarters, we'll be looking at the most serious recession since the recession of the early 90's.

Don't believe me? The Dow just dropped 293 points today; the Federal reserve just lowered loan rates again at three quarters a percent. Damn my shoddy memory because I forgot how much they lowered them last time (I think it was a full percent). Our economy has fallen behind that of the European Union, something that hasn't happened since the second World War.

But as far as ignorant people go, you take the cake on this one, Daniel. Turning a blind eye towards the attitude of the general American public won't help us; berating them for fearing recession is only going to make the problem worse and make you look more like an idiot (seeing as you've regressed this far into stupidity makes this hard to do, but it's possible, I assure you). Working to restore people' faith in the Economy is the only way we can stave off this economic nose dive.

On a side note, Daniel, you might consider switching to firefox, or at least updating it. It comes with a spell checker, and seeing as you have a plethora of spelling errors and no grammatical eye, it would benefit you greatly.

Anonymous said...

Daniel's servant/wife takes care of everything and doesnt really talk to Daniel much so he doesn't know that milk is nearly $4 bucks a gallon, eggs $2 bucks a dozen and bread on a steady uptick. Don't even ask her about Daniel's bologna. It's 50% higher than it was just 5 months ago. He's probably just like Bush -- completely unaware that gas is predicted to go to $4 a gallon.
Let them eat cake, right Daniel? What you seem to forget, you being at or near the bottom rung of the food chain, is that you'll be eating cake along with the rest of us. But considering your adoration of greed you should have no problem choking it down, right?

Ignorance is bliss I suppose.

MAX Redline said...

Daniel's servant/wife takes care of everything and doesnt really talk to Daniel much so he doesn't know that milk is nearly $4 bucks a gallon, eggs $2 bucks a dozen and bread on a steady uptick.

Where the hell do you shop?

Or do you have your servant do it for you?

I actually do most of the grocery shopping for our family, and milk is routinely $2 - $2.69 a gallon. I bought two dozen eggs for $2 last week. Bread's been moving up to around a buck a loaf, although I bought an organic french batard for a buck last week as well.

Had you done any actual reading, then you'd understand that while food prices are rising, it's not a function of a "tanking" economy. Food prices are rising because idiots are all concerned about global warming, and so they're subsidizing ethanol, and so farmers are diverting food crops to biofool production.

Anonymous said...

So, to sum things up: There are two people in the United States who are on record saying that we are NOT in a recession: George W. Bush, and Daniel Miglavs.

'Nuff said.

Anthony DeLucca said...

Anon 5:31

You're a moron. Try turning on CNBC or Bloomberg for a change. Economists, and economic experts are divided as to wether or not a recession exists. Most agree that we are not in a recession, but rather a cyclical period of slower than usual growth. As Daniel states, by definition, we are not in a recession. Based on the last 110 Fiscal Quarters (dating back to the Reagan Administration), 107 of them have been positive GDP numbers. That includes the last two quarters.

While the housing crisis has put a crunch on the economy, overall the economy is doing well. There are growth numbers all over the place.

Anonymous said...

Max REdline: the question is WHERE THE HELL DO YOU SHOP because those are the lowest prices I've seen in at least three months.

Walmart:

gallon milk: 2.99

18 ct eggs: 3.00

1 loaf multigrain bread 2.60

2 lb cheddar cheese 6.99

Where the hell do you shop Max?

Anonymous said...

And yes, I have seen non-generic brand milk for 3.69 per gallon ROUTINELY.

Anonymous said...

Oh...and Max: your explanation as to WHY food prices are rising is woefully incomplete. Demand for corn is only a very small part of the equation.

Anonymous said...

"There are growth numbers all over the place."

Unfortunately, those numbers can be found only in Anthony DeLucca's legendary "FBI/INS Statistical Report."

Anonymous said...

Interesting: "Conservative" Daniel Miglavs doesn't feel comfortable saying the economy is in a recession until the government says so and makes it official! LOL!!!

At least he's being consistent. The government also says that the war in Iraq is going very well; hence, Daniel can see nothing there to complain about. Nothing at all.

Anonymous said...

At this time the only reason the world economy continues to function is that we are all holding hands and nobody has the guts to look down.

Say your prayers folks as we are on very thin ice and the temps are rising.

Anonymous said...

I just want to point out that many Republicans talk about the "Clinton Recession", even though there was no recession during his administration.

In fact, there has not been a recession during the Bush administration, even though the economy has been pretty crappy throughout.

Anonymous said...

anon 747
how long has adozen eggs been 18 count ?????????????????
I was taught in PUBLIC school that a dozen was 12 twelve !!!
Was i told wrongly?

Anonymous said...

Dear Daniel on High:

Is it now acceptable for us to use the word "recession"?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/20/news/economy/recession_forecast/index.htm?cnn=yes

Mike said...

We won't know if its a recession until July.

Anonymous said...

Anon 747: If you don't know you can buy an 18 ct carton of eggs then you are fucking STOOOPID.

Stevie said...

Daniel, "for the record", it appears you have no better understanding of the correct definition of recession than most of the people you criticize for the very same thing!

The definition you cite is the defintion used by the popular media, and people like yourself who simply repeat what that popular media says.

However, those of us who actually work in the world of finance, and who know better, rely primarily on the National Bureau of Economic Research to define recession. That's because the NBER understands that simply looking at GDP by itself is hardly an adequate method to determine if we're in recession. Instead, the NBER also looks at real income, employment, industrial production, wholesale-retail sales and other indicators to better determine if we're in or heading towards a recession. And it is this NBER data that government and private sector decision makers rely on when making policy, financial or investing decisions.

http://www.econmodel.com/classic/terms/recession.htm

In essence Daniel, nobody who actually understands this type of stuff, and who works in the field of economics or finance, pays much attention to the out-dated, popular culture defintion you've offered. Nor have they for several years. And in this regard, the next time you decide to smugly declare that YOU know something others don't, it will greatly help your case if what you purport to know, is actually true. As it stands, with this post you demonstrate a level of ignorance every bit as high, if not higher, than those you ironically accuse of being ignorant.

Funny how that works, isn't it?

Anonymous said...

Not just funny, Anon 10:11 --HILARIOUS. It is a frequent, if not daily, occurence here in Miglavia. That's why I visit..I know I can rely on Miglavs for my daily dose of ironic hilarity.

Do you think he'll ever get a clue? In many ways, I hope not. Society needs him as a benchmark with which to measure ignorance and arrogance.

Anonymous said...

Any response from Miglavs?

Didn't think so. That's the way it works in Miglavia.

People who disgree with Miglavs must be Unamerican, definitely liberals, and probably communists. And the data that they bring to bear on their arguments that routinely shred Daniel's "musings"? They're probably fabricated by the same un-American communist entities that are RUINING THIS COUNTRY!

Welcome to Miglavia. Facts and logic are not welcome.

Anonymous said...

Never underestimate Daniel Miglavs' capacity for stupidity ... or his amazing inability to recognize that he has displayed stupidity. That's why my theory has always been that he's not really a conservative ... he's a closet liberal, doing a performance artist parody of an idiot Republican. Either way, it's entertaining.

Lib Librarian said...

IGNORANCE IS BLISS:

Daniel says: .....until then please stop talking like Ben Bernake sent you a text on your blackberry five minutes ago, you played golf with Warren Buffet yesterday and you're going to lunch with Henry Paulson.

You are not a financial genius, you can't even define recession and anyone who listens to your market predictions and isn't laughing in their head is dumber than you are.

***********************************

According to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the highly regarded Economic Cycle Research Institute, who by all accounts IS a financial genius, recession is now unavoidable as indicated by the many 21st CENTURY markers his organization uses to measure such things.

I trust there will be plenty of us "dumber than you are"
"financial geniuses" happy to check in with you when your circa 1980s recession-predicting Miglavian GROUND HOG pops out of his proverbial hole in the ground to tell you if it's a recession yet.

Until then, please stop talking like YOU got a text from Ben Bernake, YOU played golf with Warren Buffet, and YOU had lunch with Henry Paulson, because

Daniel: YOU are not a financial genius, and it's painfully obvious YOU are woefully (and blissfully) unaware of the more sophisticated and accurate methods economists currently use to measure the US economy.

Anonymous said...

Miglavs, I think you need to change the text of your banner:

DANIEL'S POLITICAL MUSINGS: IGNORANCE IS BLISS

Accurate said...

Here's the thing - I work as a construction inspector (both commercial and residential) and I'm seeing the work drop off. For a while, commercial was picking up the slack, but now it too is slowing down. I work with guys who are coming back from a 4 month layoff; tell them there is not a recession. Yesterday, I was on a job where 4 guys had driven straight through to get to Oregon from Lansing, Michigan - the reason? We still have some work here, around Lansing there is no work to be had for a 350 mile radius. Sorry, but from where I stand, yes, it appears we are in a recession.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Accurate, for that interesting report from Reality. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming in Miglavia.

Scottiebill said...

Anon 749: The demand for corn is a large part of the equation as far as the cost of food goes. Cattle ranchers typically use corn to fatten their cattle for slaughter with the intent of producing a higher quality of beef. The same can be applied to dairymen who use corn to keep their dairy cows well-nourished to produce a better quality of milk and the by-products of that milk. The rising price of corn, due to the manufacturing of ethanol has made the use of corn for feed almost prohibitive. My wife and I have friends in northern Montana who have a small herd of beef cattle and 5 or 6 head of dairy cows. they are having to sell nearly all their livestock because they can't afford corn to use for feed. They are both in their mid-70s and their beef cattle and their milk sales have been providing them with a pretty good living since they retired. But that is now a thing of the past. A great deal of this is due to the price of corn and other feed products, not only for them but for a great many others in the same situation all across the country.

MAX Redline said...

Anonymouse747-749,

gallon milk: 2.99

18 ct eggs: 3.00

1 loaf multigrain bread 2.60

2 lb cheddar cheese 6.99

Where the hell do you shop Max?


Well, there's no WalMart around here, so I tend to shop at the little-known stores that are close by - Fred Meyer, Thriftway, New Seasons.

I do almost all of the grocery shopping for my household.

Routinely, I buy gallons of milk for $2.69 a pop. (Freddies)

Loaves of whole-wheat bread were 69 cents each at Freddies until about a month ago, when they bumped the price up by 30 cents.

Of course, I pick up organic mini-batards at New Seasons for a buck.

I picked up a couple of pounds of butter at Thriftway today - $2 each. Also got a locally-grown, organic roast which is cooking as we speak for under $6, oranges for salad at around 39 cents a pound. And 18-count Willamette Farms eggs for a buck and a half. 2-pound Tillamook medium cheddar cheese: $3.99.

I check prices, and then I drive to Thriftway, then to New Seasons, then to Freddies, and then back home. One trip, just a few blocks after you get down the hill.

Oh - and the reason you don't see locally-grown organic beef/chicken/pork prices jumping up so much is because the farmers don't depend so much on corn-based feed. Corn prices have skyrocketed due to diversion to biofools intended to "save the planet".

LOL! What a bunch of dorks. Earth is in a global cooling period, and has been for nearly a decade. But idiots are still scrambling around, trying to find ways to control your behavior, so that they can "save the planet from global warming". Too rich!

Anonymous said...

That concludes this afternoon's broadcast from Miglavia.

Anonymous said...

Max: Where did you get Tillamook medium cheddar 2 lb for 3.99? I can't seem to find it in my Thriftway ad or any of the other grocery circulars from this week. Sure would like to snag some at that price! Thanks!

Other factors driving up food costs even more than corn demand, according to my research: recent poor crop yield in other countries driving up export demand, cost of energy driving up production costs, costs of fuel driving up transportation costs. US Ag Dept says these factors are driving up costs more than demand for corn for biofuel is.

Okay -- so let me know on that cheese Max! Tilly is the best. Have you tried their yogurt and ice cream?

J-Man said...

the funniest thing is that its a self full filling prophecy too. If people stop spending money b/c they think its a recession, they're just going to bring one on.